Unless I read it wrong, Flash is huge right now and we can’t live without it, yet everyone knows it can’t go on because its very limited. New technologies are on the way but flash still has plenty of years left.
I skimmed it mostly, didn’t see anything related to flash based HDD systems (flash only portables, etc).
I want to see an article based on when/who will replace a HDD…currently what this flash based argument stems from. Currenly I vote for price/capacity over solid-state…at least given our current public available technology (I have no idea what the government or companies have in the works).
This article is nothing new, at least IMO, I completely agree that flash is a part of our lives, and its a dying technology, but right now, it won’t be replaced.
Yeah, Tom’s article doesn’t discuss flash memory as a replacing hard disks as the main storage device in computers (which was main focus of our original discussion). You have 8GB pushing $1000 right now but you also have 100GB at 7200RPM pushing $199 MSRP in a 2.5” notebook form factor. At this rate, it doesn’t seem likely that flash memory will ever catch up.
Even with the advancement in flash memory (from how I’m reading it), there is a point where they’ll need to explore a new avenue. Continuing to shrink will only go so far (like we’ve seen in CPUs) and they will need to adopt new technologies.
I do see an in-between scenario where a PC’s main memory is non-volatile (so basically flash but unlimited rewrites) along with a small, fast, and voluminous hard disk (SATA based with full NCQ implementation). So, you can have the best of both worlds. Near instant-on abilities since there will essentially no standby/hibernate - it will just be sleep and all the data in RAM just stays there and you just need to wait for the hard disk to park its head.
So, I still maintain that we will never see flash (in its current or even future form) as our main storage medium for the forseeable future. It’s definitely complementary but not primary. Yes, new additions to flash technology may affect this but with the number of changes needed, it’s not really fair to call it flash anymore if it’s borrowing technology from other memory technologies. Of course, people will still call it flash ram like they call tissues Kleenex.
Flash memory is the contemporary floppy disk. Look how many years and iterations they went through. Even when/if MRAM becomes viable, flash will be cheaper and as the article states “good enough”. I agree with gr00vy0ne that nothing projected for the next 10 years threatens mechanical drives.
I’m holding out for storing bits as electrons in the outer shell of some metal in a crystalline matrix. 8)
[quote author=“jso902”]i dunno cpu’s are getting pretty damn small… i used to thin 90nm was the small of smallest…
but making stuff that small also comes with it’s price tag
Yes, they are getting small with 65nm being the next major goal. Of course, you’re right there is a price and it’s called leakage. It’s the same problem that caused the 90nm Prescott Pentium 4s to run noticeably hotter than the 130nm Pentium 4s. Also, you’re seeing that all these manufacturers move to dual core designs now since shrinking is starting to have diminishing results.
[quote author=“gr00vy0ne”]I do see an in-between scenario where a PC’s main memory is non-volatile (so basically flash but unlimited rewrites) along with a small, fast, and voluminous hard disk (SATA based with full NCQ implementation). So, you can have the best of both worlds. Near instant-on abilities since there will essentially no standby/hibernate - it will just be sleep and all the data in RAM just stays there and you just need to wait for the hard disk to park its head.
So, I still maintain that we will never see flash (in its current or even future form) as our main storage medium for the forseeable future. It’s definitely complementary but not primary…
Then why were you basically against Truth and I on this???:
[quote author=“OnMyWayUp”]People willing to have better performance will get their TB of mechanical HD space as well as get a 10-15 GB flash drive for the important things…the fact is tht most people have not been introduced to the possiblity of using RAM for loading their O/S and most used programs. Then using a HD for everything else. If they were to use high quality drives they would definitely notice a jump in their OVERALL performance with their PC and it would catch on. However, because PC manufacterers are greedy a$$holes, they aren’t willing to introduce this concept. So the general public continues to live in ignorance, (them being everyone but I us nerds ) having never really thought hard about how to improve their performance, will never really consider the Flash option.
[quote author=“OnMyWayUp”]:? It’s exactly what you said…
Read again. He’s saying that current volitile RAM technologies will probably be replaced with non-volitile tech, so that computers can instant-hibernate. You’re talking about flash drives.
[quote author=“Drachen”][quote author=“OnMyWayUp”]:? It’s exactly what you said…
Read again. He’s saying that current volitile RAM technologies will probably be replaced with non-volitile tech, so that computers can instant-hibernate. You’re talking about flash drives.
Again… wow your slipping Drachen… here, I’ll pin-point what I was talking about if your not intuitive enough to figure it out based on my previous arguments:
[quote author=“gr00vy0ne”]I do see an in-between scenario…[flash] {whether volatile or not} along with a small, fast, and voluminous hard disk…So, you can have the best of both worlds.
Basically, I wasn’t arguing about volatile… just the broader concept of flash AND HD. If it’s better great, otherwise I’m not wasting more time.
Obviously I have in the past touted that Flash would “take over the world”. Although part of my boasting was to create a healthy debate by stirring up the pot, I was really rooting for flash to pave the way for the evolution of better storage mediums. It appears that I have lost the debate but am excited to see this evolution unfold.
I like the idea that a hybrid technology will be coming down the pike. If, however, any mobo makers decide to allow a flash oriented HD to be a primary storage option at a low enough price point, I would still bite. Of course I would use a mechanical device for external storage of data and backup. :wink:
Other than that, I have been a little quiet on the boards lately. This forum has gotten pretty social, which means I still read most threads but my participation has waned. Congrats to tifo on the promotion to mod and the X505.
Here’s looking forward to the new Intel chipset inside the next ‘T’ series model. :D
[quote author=“Drachen”][quote author=“OnMyWayUp”]:? It’s exactly what you said…
Read again. He’s saying that current volitile RAM technologies will probably be replaced with non-volitile tech, so that computers can instant-hibernate. You’re talking about flash drives.
Exactly. Drachen gets what I am saying. It’s 2 entirely different things. I’m talking about main memory vs. memory storage. It’s two different things. And no, it will be a long time before the two converge. In my scenario, the OS is still loaded off the hard disk; however, once the system is loaded and running the system can have instant on/off abilities.
My main concern about flash performance is that it’s only topping out at 12MB/s sustained write (maximum) right now and that’s for the expensive stuff. Your common 7200RPM 2.5” hard disk is pushing 40-45MB/s sustained in writes with a burst ability of 100MB/s. And this will only get faster capacities grow and NCQ is added to these drives. The only thing flash has in its corner is less latency but that’s not enough to make up for the performance gap.
Don’t get me wrong. I too would love some sort of super-fast, voluminous, non-mechanical, non-volatile memory solution (it may or may not be “flash memory”) just as much as you all but the technical reality along with economic considerations just makes it not practical now nor in the next decade.
Oh, and Truth…we miss you. I hope all is well with you and your family! :D
